With the US market’s exuberance seemingly getting more and more irrational, many are expecting an inevitable crash to end the 10-year bull run anytime from now to (some say) after the presidential election.
Regional markets had been affected by the trade war for much of the past year, and even have to worry over the US-Iran conflict now. While there have been some recovery, the markets here are nowhere near the giddy levels of the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P.
Should the crash finally happen over at the other side, I still expect a contagion effect for regional markets, wiping out whatever nascent recovery they have made in past few months. This may seem so unfair but is the course of reality.
What is everyone’s view on this? Perhaps can share your planned strategies (for those who have) should this inevitable scenario happen?
For SGX keep calm and collect dividends.
I only have SGX counters…
I believe the eventual bull run will come sooner rather than later. I believe the extended bull run in the US market is being propped up by their administration and their feds pro-market policy making decisions.
When the crash finally happen over at their side, I believe the other smaller markets ( SG market) will also suffer given how globalised businesses is being run today.
Given that I’m still early in my investing journey, my strategy would still be to keep a lookout for value on a case by case basis while building up my war chest for the eventual crash as I feel its important to make my limited amount of “bullets” count. But definitely I will still stay vested with what I’m holding now unless the company’s fundamentals changed.
So essentially, despite the high possibility of regional markets being affected by US’ eventual crash, you will stay vested and build up warchest at the same time to be deployed at the when the time comes. Did I get it right?
Yes, my approach would be that. However the risk I’m taking would be to forgo the paper gain in the event of the downturn.
Don’t try to time. Markets have been exuberant for years now, depending on who you ask.
I am not selling anything (own US and SGX) but will continue to buy SGX and other non-US investments.
The dividends are not paper gains…
When the dividends come in, crash or not, I use them to buy the best “deal” of the moment, worst case if nothing appealing, hold the cash and wait for a decent promo code then buy.
To me, it’s not really crash or no crash, its more of will you be better off buying that stock (over the long term) or not…
One way for me to evaluate is will my next purchase likely improve the dividend yield of the portfolio… If it does it definitely qualifies for a buy… It could still be a good deal otherwise, but cash constraints always prime me to go for the “low hanging fruits”…
It’s time, what should we do with the cash on hand?