Mean Reversion (REITS)


#1

Hello, is there any free platform where I can track the dividend yield of a REIT on a graph?

Ideally, should also show where the mean yield is and the standard deviation as well.


#2

Well, you could try StocksCafe.

https://stocks.cafe/stock/dividend/A17U/ascendas+real+estate+inv+trust?type=xsummary&exchange=XSES

Mean yield and SD could be easily calculated in EXCEL.


#3

Mean yield and SD could be easily calculated in EXCEL.

If you believe it would be useful to wider audience, StocksCafe should also compute this.


#4

Hi,

No idea if many would use it.

(But certainly a lot of people would be happy to see SSB’s modelled on SC, it is possibly one of the most widely held assets, and I don’t think that the interest rate ladders have been implemented anywhere to automatically show the current yields, so it would be a unique SC feature…)


#5

But certainly a lot of people would be happy to see SSB’s modelled on SC

Yes, I will focus on it this weekend. Although I am flying this weekend, hope I can find time :frowning:

I don’t think that the interest rate ladders have been implemented anywhere to automatically show the current yields, so it would be a unique SC feature

Not sure what you meant here. Can you enlighten me?


#6

Hi,

(Sorry if I give too much detail here)

  1. Issued by MAS since about three years on a monthly basis. First issue I think was in 2015.

  2. Redeemed automatically in 10 years.

  3. Interest paid every six months.

  4. Redeemable at par every month (no fluctuating market value, although interest is paid)

  5. Each issue has its own fixed interest rate ladder, for example the latest is here

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/savingsbonds/Your-SSB/This-months-bond.aspx

Year / Interest, %

1 / 1.89
2 / 2.19
3 / 2.38
4 / 2.54
5 / 2.66
6 / 2.73
7 / 2.77
8 / 2.82
9 / 2.90
10 / 3.04

I think you would have to create 30-odd SC counters, (They are shown in the CDP for example as GX18060H. 18 is the year, 06 is the month, dunno what the other characters signify, they do not seem to change) and model the interest rates.

Every six months they throw off a dividend, which could usefully go into the cash balance.

As this is all fixed from the issue, there is nothing to change for the whole decade. There is off course a slight management overhead in creating the latest issue every month, but there is at least three weeks after the announcement from MAS to do it.

Hope that helps…


#7

Thanks. Very clear now.

Another thing to note is that since we know all the future interest rates, I wonder if the raising interest rate would be so much that it make sense to actually sell the current bonds that you are holding and buy the upcoming bond.

i.e: Compare the [summation of future dividends till maturity of bond A] vs [summation of future dividends till maturity of bond A for upcoming bond]


#8

Yes, particularly as the dealing costs are a minimal SGD 3.

There is one caveat in that there is no guarantee that you will be assigned all the SSB’s that you apply for. Generally they are very over-subscribed and getting more than around SGD 15k is unlikely. MAS likes to spread them around as much as possible. So far I have found applications for 10k and under are 100% filled.

Also the maximum holding is 100k.


#9

Generally they are very over-subscribed and getting more than around SGD 15k is unlikely.

Good point!


#10

WarriorTan has collated all the numbers in a handy table.


#11

Yes, I have already reached out to him and he had kindly sent them to me :slight_smile: